Bitcoin 200-Week Moving Average — The Bear Market Bottom Line
BTC is currently +1.99% above the 200-week MA. BTC at $63,098, MA at $61,868.
BTC Price vs 200-Week MA
BTC is currently +1.99% from the 200-week MA — within the historical accumulation zone. Every BTC bear market since 2015 has bottomed within 10% of this line. Caveat: each historical sample was followed by sustained accumulation over months, not an immediate V-shaped recovery.
Historical Bottom Touches
| Touch Date | BTC at touch | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2015 | $178.00 | Bottom of the 2014–15 bear (post-Mt. Gox) |
| Dec 15, 2018 | $3,128 | Bottom of the 2018 bear (post-ICO bust) |
| Mar 13, 2020 | $5,014 | COVID-19 flash crash — brief touch, sharp recovery |
| Nov 21, 2022 | $15,479 | FTX collapse bottom — held within 10% of MA for weeks |
- Daily Bitcoin close prices from CryptoCompare since 2010
- 200-week MA: simple average of the last 1400 daily BTC closes (200 weeks × 7 days)
- Distance %: (current price − MA) / MA × 100
- Updated hourly. Snapshot table: 1000 daily data points stored.
- Computation uses naive slice + reduce per day (NOT a rolling sum). The pi-cycle-top backfill earlier had a rolling-sum bias bug that shifted historical signals by up to 21 days; naive recompute eliminates that bug class.
- Lagging by construction — the MA tells you where cost basis WAS, not where it will go.
- Only four bottom touches in 11 years — small sample, low statistical confidence.
- Market structure has shifted: BTC spot ETF flows since 2024, institutional custody, treasury accumulation. Future cycles may not touch the MA at all.
- Touches were FOLLOWED by months of sideways accumulation, not immediate vertical recoveries — useful for positioning, less so for short-term trading.
- Read alongside Pi Cycle Top (tops), Stablecoin Dominance (capital flight) and Fear & Greed (sentiment) for a fuller view.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Bitcoin 200-week moving average?
The 200-week moving average is the simple average of the last 1400 daily Bitcoin closing prices (200 weeks × 7 days). It smooths out short-term volatility and reveals the long-term price trend.
How is it calculated?
For any given day: sum the prior 1400 daily BTC closes and divide by 1400. We pull daily closes from CryptoCompare going back to 2010, so the first day with a valid MA value is mid-2014.
Why has it marked every bear bottom?
Three reinforcing reasons. (1) The MA represents the average cost basis of long-term holders over ~4 years — bear bottoms historically settle near this level. (2) The window length filters out cycle volatility, so the MA only updates slowly — it doesn't "chase" price. (3) Smart-money accumulation tends to step up when price reaches this level because it has historically rewarded patience. Past performance is not a guarantee.
Where is BTC relative to the 200W MA now?
BTC is +1.99% above the 200-week MA. BTC at $63,098, MA at $61,868.
What are its limitations?
Lagging indicator by construction — the MA needs 1400 days of data to compute, so it tells you where the cost basis WAS, not where it WILL be. Only four historical bear bottoms have touched the MA, so the sample size is small. Market structure has shifted since the last touch (BTC ETF flows from 2024, institutional custody, treasury accumulation). The MA touches were FOLLOWED by months of sideways accumulation, not immediate vertical recoveries — useful for positioning, less so for short-term trading.
How does it relate to the Pi Cycle Top?
They are complementary. The Pi Cycle Top historically marks cycle TOPS (within days). The 200-week MA historically marks cycle BOTTOMS (within weeks-months). Reading them together brackets the full cycle: Pi Cycle for taking profit, 200W MA for accumulating.