Pi Cycle Top Indicator — Bitcoin Cycle Top Signal
No top signal. The 111-day SMA is currently -60.99% relative to the 350-day SMA × 2. BTC at $63,099.
Pi Cycle Top — 111 SMA vs 350 SMA × 2
No top signal. The 111-day SMA is currently $72,335 — -60.99% relative to the 350-day SMA × 2 ($185,441). The two lines need to cross for the signal to fire.
Historical Pi Cycle Top Signals
| Signal Date | BTC at signal | Drawdown | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2013 | $143.00 | -65% | First leg-down of the 2013 cycle (-65% over 8 weeks) |
| Dec 3, 2013 | $1,155 | -86% | Mt. Gox era top, two-year bear market followed |
| Dec 16, 2017 | $19,345 | -84% | BTC peaked the next day at $19,783, then -84% by Dec 2018 |
| Apr 12, 2021 | $59,846 | -53% | BTC peaked two days later at $64,895, then -53% by Jun 2021 |
- Daily Bitcoin close prices from CryptoCompare since 2010
- 111-day SMA: simple moving average of the last 111 BTC closes
- 350-day SMA × 2: simple moving average of the last 350 BTC closes, multiplied by 2
- Ratio: 111-SMA divided by 350-SMA × 2. When the ratio crosses above 1.0, the indicator signals a potential cycle top.
- Updated hourly. Snapshot table: 1000 daily data points stored.
- Trailing indicator — moving averages always lag price. The signal fires AFTER price has run up substantially, never before.
- Small historical sample — only four signals in 13+ years. Statistical confidence is limited.
- Market structure has shifted since the last signal (BTC ETF flows from 2024, institutional custody, lower realized volatility). Future cycles may not mirror past behavior.
- Single-asset — only measures Bitcoin price. Doesn't account for altcoin dynamics or sentiment.
- Useful as one input among many. Read alongside the Fear & Greed Index, Stablecoin Dominance, and BTC Dominance for a fuller market view.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Pi Cycle Top Indicator?
The Pi Cycle Top Indicator is a technical signal designed by Philip Swift (LookIntoBitcoin) that uses two simple moving averages of Bitcoin's price: the 111-day SMA and the 350-day SMA multiplied by 2. When the 111-day crosses above the 350-day × 2, it has historically marked Bitcoin cycle tops within days.
How is it calculated?
For any given day: (1) compute the 111-day simple moving average of BTC close prices, (2) compute the 350-day simple moving average and multiply by 2, (3) compare them. The "ratio" we display is the 111-SMA divided by the 350-SMA × 2 — when this ratio crosses above 1.0, the indicator signals. Data source: CryptoCompare daily BTC closes since 2010.
How accurate has it been historically?
The indicator has fired four times — Apr 6 2013 (BTC $143, -65% drawdown followed), Dec 3 2013 (BTC $1,155, -86%), Dec 16 2017 (BTC $19,345, BTC peaked one day later then -84% by Dec 2018), and Apr 12 2021 (BTC $59,846, BTC peaked two days later at $64,895 then -53% by June 2021). Each time within 3 days of the actual cycle high.
Is the Pi Cycle Top signaling now?
No. The current ratio is 0.3901 — the 111 SMA is -60.99% relative to the 350 SMA × 2. The lines have not crossed.
What are its limitations?
It's a trailing technical indicator built on moving averages — it can only fire AFTER price has run up substantially, never before. It has only four historical samples, all from a single asset (Bitcoin) in its early decade. Market structure has changed (BTC ETF flows since 2024, institutional custody, lower volatility regimes) and there is no guarantee future cycles will follow the same pattern. Use it as one input among many, not as a standalone trade signal.
How does it relate to altcoin season?
Pi Cycle Top signals have historically aligned with the END of altcoin rallies — when BTC tops, altcoins typically peak slightly earlier and crash harder. A Pi Cycle Top signal alongside a high Altcoin Season Index reading would be a strong combined warning. The two indicators read different parts of the same cycle.